Saturday, December 23, 2006

The tranasaction rumor post du jour

CHEERS! VERDY! put together a comprehensive list of all the confirmed and speculated transactions that have or will go down in the offseason.

I'm not going to go into the definite transfers because I've covered them in previous posts. Instead I'll focus on the speculatative ones and give a percentage on what I think will happen.

Goalkeepers Ryota Tsuzuki-Urawa Reds Tsuzuki has fallen a bit out of the first team plans for the 2006 champs after playing the lions share of games in 2005. While it would be a coup for Verdy to pick up the former National Teamer, it seems unlikely given the veritable dearth of quality keepers in J1. If Tsuzuki needs more playing time, he could cross the street and play for small rival Omiya and get the job handed to him. Had some definite rust today in the Quaterfinal match against Jubilo today. He had some nice saves but wasn't even close in the shootout and looked lucky to win today.

Likely pickup 10%

Yusuke Kondo-Thespa Kusatsu Very young prospect who came in for a trial after a year of Sattlelite work for Thespa Kusatsu. Definite project who would come in as the 4th keeper. Good for the future I suppose.

Likely pickup 50%

Hiroshi Nanami-Cerezo Osaka and Toshihiro Hattori-Jubilo Iwata Recent articles have put the former teammates in bidding battles between two squads, their current club and Verdy. It's possible that Verdy could get both, one, or none and it would not be surprising. Of the two, I think Hattori is the more likely one to join up because he looks not to be in future plans for the Shizuoka squad.

Likely pickup BOTH 33% Hattori 60% Nanami 50% NADA 25%

Yukio Tsuchiya-Omiya Ardija (Full Disclosure-I'm a HUGE Ardija fan so this one is gonna be through an orange filter.......BIAS ALERT) Hell let's cut the pretense, I hate this move for two reasons. 1. It kills the Omiya backline. Tsuchiya proved himself to be a formidable force in the backline for Omiya this year. Unlike the others mentioned, Tsuchiya is a prime contributor to the fortunes of his squad. He has a guaranteed role on a J1 side. WHY would he leave to go to a J2 side in a tumultuos state unless they are grossly overpaying him? And where is this money coming from? CyberAgent? NTV? It's not making sense. 2. Tsuchiya has missed a decent amount of time in the past, only topping 30 games once in his career. At 32, it seems unlikely that he or Hattori or Nanami will be able to hold up through a 48 game endurance test. I don't like it.

Likely pickup- NO RULING

HULK-CONSADOLE SAPPORO- Hulk has been rumored to be pursued by not only Verdy but German squad Bayern Munchen as well. This one has some legs to it and I would be shocked if he wasn't in green next season

Likely pickup-65%

There was also some rumors about Verdy players who are currently in flux

Three guys have gotten offers from J1 squads. The most serious one has been Kazuki Hiramoto to JEF Ichihara Chiba. I would rate him as 75% likely to leave. A pair of talented middle defenders, Kenta Togawa (Kashima Antlers) and Satoshi Nakano (Venforet Kofu) have kind of slipped under the radar. Of the two i'd rate Togawa (60% likely to leave) as the one with more upside. Nakano hasn't even made the papers with the Kofu bid so I'd rate this as a 25% chance of exodus.

I'll cover more tomorrow.....these rankings are pure speculation, I do not have any inside info so take this with a grain of salt.

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